This study explores the future of obesity in the UAE—a growing public health challenge impacting millions. Without action, obesity rates will remain dangerously high, placing immense pressure on healthcare systems and reducing quality of life across communities.
By modeling three scenarios—status quo, moderate action, and accelerated intervention—we highlight the clear, data-backed benefits of investing in innovative weight loss interventions today.
Prevalence of obesity (UAE)
Weight loss helps individuals lead longer, healthier lives
Obesity rate by weight loss scenario
2031
Status Quo
Moderate
Accelerated
1.2 million people transition out of obesity in an accelerated intervention scenario...
Adults transitioning out of obesity due to weight loss interventions by 2031:
1,200,000
Accelerated intervention – Prevalence reduces to 18% from 32%
400,000
Moderate intervention – Prevalence reduces to 27% from 32%
...this substantially reduces comorbidities and lengthens healthy life by up to 6.8 years...
+6.8 Years
of healthy life for each adult that
previously lived with obesity
Population-wide Life Expectancy and
Healthy Life years1 (2031)
...and frees up to $1.5 Bn of healthcare resources to be reallocated
Cumulative healthcare savings2
Up to $1.5 Bn
In the accelerated intervention scenario, where obesity prevalence drops from 32% to 18%, healthcare savings could reach $1.5 billion
1.2 Mn people no longer suffer from obesity and realize their full economic potential
Obesity rate by weight loss scenario
2031
Status Quo
Moderate
Accelerated
A healthier population boosts GDP growth by an additional 1.4%1...
UAE GDP – 2024-2031 ($Bn)
Addition to GDP in 2031
+$51 Bn
Accelerated Scenario – Prevalence reduces to 18% from 32%
+$21 Bn
Moderate Scenario – Prevalence reduces to 27% from 32%
...due to healthier workers who gain up to 5 days of productive work2 per year...
+2.1 to 5
Days of productive work per previously obese worker
+$358 to $772 /year
Average increase in annual income for the population by 2031
...a 6.3% yearly increase in consumption drives the economy forward and lifts VAT collections
Increase in Consumption3 ($ Bn)
+$42 Bn
+$123 Bn
Cumulative gain driven by increased productivity and higher income
Up to
+$2.1 Bn
Yearly increase in VAT receipts by 2031 in the accelerated intervention scenario as 1.2 Mn people experience weight loss
Healthy individuals contribute to a more cohesive and prosperous society
Obesity rate by weight loss scenario
2031
Status Quo
Moderate
Accelerated
11,000+ Emiratis are empowered to join the workforce
Addition to the workforce by 2031¹
75,000+ additional births, due to infertility dropping2
Additional births due to reduction in the infertile population thanks to weight loss (000s)
A fitter youth is empowered to take on and complete higher education
Obesity rate by weight loss scenario
2031
Status Quo
Moderate
Accelerated
Healthy youth are more likely to undertake higher education¹...
250,000
Current bachelor's
enrollments
Improved cognitive and mental health drive higher education achievement
Additional students in bachelors' programs (in 2031)
...and to complete their diploma, boosting the UAE’s Education Index ranking
+3,000
more students finish their bachelors program by 2031
Dropout Rate
in accelerated intervention –
As 148,000 youth are no longer obese
UNDP Human Development Index
(Education rankings) – (2024, 2031)
The police and military forces have an expanded pool of service-ready candidates
Obesity rate by weight loss scenario
2031
Status Quo
Moderate
Accelerated
5,700+ young Emiratis become physically and mentally fit due to weight loss…
Increase in service-ready pool by 2031¹
…boosting the number of fit citizens by 10%
Incremental growth in talent pool of security personnel (000s) – UAE (2024, 2031)
